The record for most goals scored in a World Cup tournament is 172, but that could be broken by the time the group stages wrap ...

We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors ...

EL PAÍS’s statistical model predicts that Spain is the favorite but the 2010 champion only wins one out of every six times on ...

Hello. Learning modern wisdom from a page of history, this is Today in History. Today, June 21, is also the day a very important figure in the history of mathematics and statistics was born. His name ...

If the probability that a randomly selected person will vote in the next election is 0.39, how would we find the probability that more than half of the people in a sample of 1000 will vote? Since the ...

A team of astrophysicists has just published in Nature a finding that calls into question one of the pillars of modern ...

I built a live World Cup 2026 prediction dashboard using Poisson distribution; no machine learning, no paywall, just elegant statistics. The idea is simple: combine each team's expected goals rate ...

This manuscript represents a valuable contribution to understanding motion processing in the visual cortex. Based on a heterogeneous collection of previous empirical findings, the authors show that ...

Abstract: This article proposes a filter based on the Poisson multi-Bernoulli mixture (PMBM) distribution for tracking point and extended targets with type conversion (PETC). First, we design a ...

Final pre-match blend: market odds (de-vigged) 40% / ML ensemble 40% / Poisson 15% / form 5%. Per-target models (research-driven, all backtested on held-out 2025–26): Target Baseline New model Method ...

This project uses historical Fifa World Cup data, feature engineering, and trained Random Forest models to estimate the expected goals and create realistic score probabilities.